Baseball Prop Edge: weather, Pitch DNA and AI models

José Ramírez

CLE @ TB facing Freddy Peralta
1+ Hit A 72% chance, ranked 1 of 18
2+ Total Bases Lean 40% chance, ranked 3 of 18
Home Run Pass 13% chance, ranked 8 of 18
Projected hits1.26
Projected total bases2.03
Projected home runs0.11
Batting2Confirmed
Temperature75°
Wind0 mphDome/Roof

His chances tonight

1+ Hit72%
2+ Total Bases40%
Home Run13%

Bars are scaled per market, so a full home run bar is about a 30% chance, not 100%.

Why he's ranked here

The biggest things pushing each number up or down for this game.

1+ Hit

Working for him: size of the pitcher's track record, pitch DNA matchup fit and pitcher's fastball usage.

2+ Total Bases

Working for him: pitcher's fastball usage, size of the pitcher's track record and air pressure.

Home Run

Working for him: size of the pitcher's track record and pitcher's fastball usage.

Against him: ballpark home-run factor.

Recent form

Going into this game. Hit rate is hits per plate appearance.

StatLast 7Last 14Last 30
Hit rate 35.5% 23.8% 21.3%
Hard-hit rate 32.2% 30.3% 24.1%
Barrel rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Expected wOBA 0.328 0.280 0.261

Matchup

Opposing pitcher
Freddy Peralta
Hits allowed rate
22.2%
HR allowed rate
3.3%
Hard contact allowed
19.2%
Ballpark
Neutral, HR factor 1.00

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