Baseball Prop Edge: weather, Pitch DNA and AI models

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs CLE facing Shawn Armstrong
1+ Hit B 64% chance, ranked 7 of 18
2+ Total Bases Lean 40% chance, ranked 7 of 18
Home Run B+ 20% chance, ranked 3 of 18
Projected hits0.99
Projected total bases1.98
Projected home runs0.18
Batting2Confirmed
Temperature75°
Wind0 mphDome/Roof

His chances tonight

1+ Hit64%
2+ Total Bases40%
Home Run20%

Bars are scaled per market, so a full home run bar is about a 30% chance, not 100%.

Why he's ranked here

The biggest things pushing each number up or down for this game.

1+ Hit

Working for him: size of the pitcher's track record, pitch DNA matchup fit and air pressure.

2+ Total Bases

Working for him: pitcher's fastball usage, size of the pitcher's track record and air pressure.

Home Run

Working for him: size of the pitcher's track record and pitcher's fastball usage.

Against him: ballpark home-run factor.

Recent form

Going into this game. Hit rate is hits per plate appearance.

StatLast 7Last 14Last 30
Hit rate 23.3% 20.3% 21.9%
Hard-hit rate 42.0% 33.0% 28.5%
Barrel rate 1.6% 2.0% 2.1%
Expected wOBA 0.467 0.363 0.345

Matchup

Opposing pitcher
Shawn Armstrong
Hits allowed rate
18.9%
HR allowed rate
2.1%
Hard contact allowed
19.9%
Ballpark
Neutral, HR factor 1.00
Hit streak
2 games

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